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Premier League betting trends

Premier league betting trends

The 2020/2021 Premier League season is about to start, here we look over the betting trends on the main markets. It has been a shorter than usual close season and the transfer window is still open well into the season. This has impacted the overall betting markets with teams moving on transfer news and rumours.

To win the league trends

We will kick things off with the too win the league odds. We were surprised to find that Manchester City were the strong favourites despite Liverpool romping home to the league last season. The value on Liverpool at 3.4 as they currently are look exceptional. They have hit the dizzy heights of 3.9 which is crazy when they won the league by 18 points and tailed off after lockdown.

Manchester City betting trends

Manchester City has pretty much always been the favourites since the markets opened. They started out in the 2-2.25 range and bar one freak £148 on a 2.48 trade they have mainly been under the 2.25 odds. At the time of writing, 3/9/20, there has been £840.937 traded on City with just £283 placed at over 2.25. Here how the graph looks –

Manchester City winners odds and betting trends

Looking at the current market there is plenty of support in their price at 1.9 at the high side and 1.78-1.73 on the lower side. As you can see from the graph they were shortening over time but recently had a small spike.

What has been moving the Manchester City odds?

Form – At the end of last season City were in great form where Liverpool slipped into the easy street after the league was won. The performances of City were impressive, although it has to be noted that they were under no pressure.

Transfers – City has got some business done early which helps build confidence around next season. It looked like their transfer business would be done effectively and they’d be ready for the new season, then Messi sent his fax! This now looks like it could be the transfer of the decade if they pull it off, but this has caused the odds to drift- even though any team would be better with Messi in it.

Liverpool betting trends

As mentioned above Liverpool stormed the league and you would be expecting them to be the favourites next time due to the manner of the win. I think the Liverpool price at the moment is very generous!

The dip in Liverpool’s form at the end of the season has only served to move the price here. It is a strange one for it to have moved as much as it has. You would expect them to be straight back on it at the start of the new season.

The market is mainly focused on these 2 teams with £1.18 million of the £1.34 million matched on these two. They both move together, City get shorter and Liverpool get longer and vice versa. With just over a week to go until the season starts, unless there are any major signings I would not expect much to change here.

Chelsea betting trends

Next in the Premier League betting odds are Chelsea, who are very short at 14.5 on the exchanges, in my opinion. There has been just £58,000 matched on this market with a high of 22 and a low of 12.5.

Last season they had the worst defence in the top 10 teams and since then have added one defender – a 35-year-old Thiago Silva. Being a further odds Chelsea have more drifted around than had any major moves as you can see below.

Chelsea premier league odds trends

Manchester United betting trends 

I was surprised to see United at 21s compared with Chelsea at 14.5. Although I do not expect them to win the league I would expect them to be third or at least very close if not above Chelsea. Whilst Chelsea have done some good business early United have taken their time with only Van De Beek signed so far.

The links to signing Sacho will not go away and that could be a signing that would move the odds with the hype around him. Apart from that other business could be done, like the signing of Van De Beek, very quietly. It is hard to see who they would get, apart from Sancho, to really excite the fans into betting on them to win the league.

Here’s the graph –

man united betting trends - to win the Premier League

After the restart of last season, United started well which brought the odds down. It does appear that realism has set in and they drifted to a more realistic price.

At the bottom end of the league, there is still small amounts of money matched. A grand total of £25 on Fulham to win the league at 1000 and £28 for West Brom to win the league at 1000!